The December 2022 Holiday Travel Armageddon Overshadows Concerns About the Cost of Gasoline

‘Twas the night before Christmas and throughout the land, a winter storm not seen in a generation was stirring and putting up a good fight.

Needless to say, the weather has replaced much of the discussion about gasoline prices for this end-of-year holiday season as a snowstorm grips much of the nation creating a mess that one can only describe as an Air Travel Armageddon. Let’s take a look at current gas prices for those folks who have already arrived at their holiday destinations or are on their way.

AAA is reporting today’s national average for a gallon of gasoline at $3.097. That’s not a bad average price considering one month ago, motorists were paying $3.586, and on June 14, 2022, the average for a gallon of gasoline was $5.016. Even better, gas prices are less than $3.00 per gallon in 29 states. Y-i-p-e-e-e! That’s the good news!

About two weeks ago, AAA projected that an estimated 112.7 million persons would travel 50 miles or more away from their homes between December 23^rd and January 2^nd. This projection reflects an increase of 3.6 million more persons than the same time period for last year, and is more reflective of pre-pandemic numbers. AAA went on to project that of those expected to travel, nearly 102 million Americans were planning to drive to their destinations and 7.2 million were expected to fly. Airports are expected to be packed this holiday season with images that are similar to pre-pandemic days.

I am not one to second guess AAA’s estimated travel projections, but some things have changed since their post was published on December 12, 2022. A winter storm packing a lot of punch along with an Artic blast and the makings for a bomb cyclone came on the scene. A bomb cyclone was explained in a previous post, but I’ll provide the definition again: When colder air mixes with warmer sea air, the storm undergoes a process called bombogenesis. This leads to a swift drop in atmospheric pressure and what is often called a bomb cyclone. [Source: NOAA] Another definition that is easier to remember is to think of a bomb cyclone like a winter weather hurricane – high winds, heavy snow and extremely cold weather.

Another term that has been echoed by meteorologists this week is flash freeze. When temperatures fall rapidly, anything wet on the ground will freeze. This is known as a flash freeze. The National Weather Service (NWS) calls it a “sneaky” winter hazard. Wet roads can freeze quickly at night or when there is a rapid drop in temperature behind a cold front.

So far, this storm that has affected 100 million people (almost the same number as those expected to travel during this holiday season) and with very negative results that include:

• More than 755,000 homes and businesses nationwide were without power Christmas Eve afternoon. (Source: CNN)
• At least 21 persons have died as a result of this storm.
• City of Buffalo officials say that this may be the worse snow storm in the history of the city.
• The National Guard has been called out to help rescue stranded persons in the Buffalo area.
• PJM International, a power grid operator that serves about 65 million persons in at least 13 states (all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia) has asked customers to conserve power from early Saturday to 10 a.m. on Sunday, Christmas Day, because higher than expected usage was straining capacity – and warned rolling blackouts could happen if the strain becomes too much. Rolling blackout did occur in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina and other states may have also been affected.

Suffice it so say that a some of the 111 million persons who are expected to travel this holiday season may have taken a rain check and opted for a “stay-cation” based on the weather and numerous flight cancellations over the past several days. While I had not planned to travel this weekend, I did consider attending an event with members of my high school graduating class on Friday evening. Here in the southeastern United States, the weather changed drastically from Thursday to Friday, with temperatures dropping very quickly – 30 degrees in less than three (3) hours. By the end of Friday, December 23^rd, the wind chill factor was 10 degrees Fahrenheit or less. By the time the sun had set, I was in for the night….and I don’t think I was the only classmate who was a no-show for this event.

We are all hoping that by the middle of next week the storm and the atrocious weather that has accompanied it will have moved on and normal temperatures for the end of December will return.

In the meantime, whether you or traveling or staying at home, safe travels and happy holidays to you!